BREAKING: Ontario predicts 3,000 to 15,000 deaths during COVID-19 with public health measures

This afternoon, the provincial government revealed its projections regarding the number of expected deaths in Ontario for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, which could last up to two years.

With public health measures in place, Ontario is predicting somewhere between 3,000 and 15,000 deaths throughout the entire run of COVID-19 pandemic in the province.

This is in significant contrast to the projections for if no public health measures were in place; a worst-case scenario in which the province would instead see roughly 100,000 deaths over the course of the pandemic.

Ontario coronavirus modelling suggests that without intervention, province would have had 6,000 deaths by end of April. On track for 1,600, but could go down to 200 if people follow guidelines. Number of cases would have been 300,000; on track for 80,000, could go down to 12,500. pic.twitter.com/m7GmsSzrRY

— CBC News Alerts (@CBCAlerts) April 3, 2020

More compact projections were also released showing what the scenario would be by April 30th, 2020, indicating that Ontario could have been in line to see an estimated 300,000 cases with 6,000 deaths by that time with no public health measures in place.

As of now, the province can nonetheless potentially see 80,000 cases with 1,600 deaths if stricter public health precautions aren’t abided by. With “fuller future intervention” Ontario could instead be on track to see a lower estimated 200 deaths by end of April.

All of these projections are just based on currently available data, and are subject to change at any time.

The current Ontario total for confirmed cases of COVID-19 is 3,255 cases, which includes 67 deaths.

Lead image courtesy of @CBCAlerts

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